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For the record, my 3/16/2020 email: "Stay out of stores"

6/1/2021

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Dear Friend,

Please stay out of the stores!  Enjoy the outdoors, or enjoy your home, but let's avoid enclosed spaces with other people for now. 

Given the easy aerosolized spread of the virus by asymptomatic and presymptomatic people (and especially by children) and a long incubation period (3 to 10+ days), the only way to prevent a massive spike in cases is to limit social interactions before symptoms are widely evident in the community.

As of this message, VDH reports 45 cases in-state, and not just in the DC suburbs, but also in more rural parts of the state, having tested only 408 people.  As one doctor recently explained, there are probably 50 more cases for each confirmed positive - Ohio officials estimate already 1% of its population is positive. The same could well be true here, or worse.

Until time and testing prove otherwise, please practice strict social distancing - especially if you are (or live with) older and/or have pre-existing conditions. Do not go into enclosed spaces with other people!

Please keep in mind that even for younger people (aged 20 - 40) this illness is considered to be 10 to 20x more deadly than the seasonal flu. And much more so with increasing age.

If you are still skeptical that this virus is a serious concern, I invite you to watch my new video "Understanding the coronavirus confusion" here where I discuss the issue of bad data throwing people off.  I would also invite you to check out my personal Facebook feed where I've posted a variety of articles I've found helpful, and my previous email/blog post here.
  
Order food!

It's the 21st century, and we have abundant options for ordering food and other products, here are a few:
  • Expresslanes at Harris Teeter - https://www.harristeeter.com/whatisexpresslane
  • Misfits.com - https://www.misfitsmarket.com/
  • Imperfect foods - https://www.imperfectfoods.com/
  • Instacart - Instacart.com (not just food - Costco, CVS, Target, etc.)
  • Whole Foods - https://www.wholefoodsmarket.com/grocery-delivery-and-pickup
Remember to treat all the items you ordered as contaminated with virus - take them straight to the bathtub and sanitize stuff - wash everything with soap and water as appropriate and possible. 

Wild edibles in your yard:

Free fresh greens are already in your yard!  All of these plants below should have edible parts at this time.  Look these up and then find them in the lawn and in the mulch beds, etc.  If you are not confident of them being clean from dog or cat urine, parboil or briefly steam the greens to be on the safe side and kill any germs.
  • chickweed
  • dandelion 
  • bittercress - the flowering stems are best when blooming and tender - will get tough with age. (link)
  • field garlic/onion grass - very abundant - the leaves are starting to get a little tough, but if you dice them can still be added to meals for fiber and nutrients. 
  • purple dead-nettle
  • henbit
  • plantain - use the young leaves
  • garlic mustard - you can collect some of the leaves of the rosettes now, in a few weeks they will send up flower stems that you should collect just before, or as they begin, to bloom, while still tender.
Re-grow your veggies at home: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EzvKwbIoLM

Garden - how to keep out the critters:

If deer, bunnies, etc are a problem, order some Garden Netting at Amazon.com.  Improvise your own frame, order one of those two - search "garden netting frame."  These things are cheap.

My Prognosis: 

It seems that some people anticipate a brief disruption to normal life followed by a resumption of normal activities. 
 
My expectation is that there will be a national lockdown of some sort initiated no later than Wednesday, likely sooner, initially for 2 weeks. I have received converging, specific intel from multiple independent sources on this.  

Over those two weeks, I expect conditions to deteriorate especially in New York, but also locally, along with a significant increase in testing. So the restrictions will likely be extended, especially in metropolitan areas, although the exact nature of the restrictions is still to be learned. I imagine there should still be some limited amount of product delivery available. 

I find it likely that there will be some restrictions on movement and activities that last for 1 - 2 months at least, especially in more urban areas. We should expect that economic conditions will be poor at a minimum, hopefully not worse.    

However, if more evidence emerges to support that the virus is sensitive to temperature and humidity, maybe we will be able to resume outdoor activities as things heat up.  Increases in the availability and use of masks or treatment options could also help, but given the global demand for these - who knows what the timeline would be. 
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Prepare NOW for the outbreak!

2/27/2020

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Greetings!

This is a message I wish I didn't have to write, but I feel a sense of responsibility to inform you of my concerns about the coronavirus situation so you can get ready for what could be very trying times, especially as media and authorities have been downplaying or sending mixed messages about the virus.

I once penned an article about black widow spiders for an Air Force base newspaper in Nevada.  I had found them living in our home on base under the couch and thought it would be good to inform neighbors, so they would be careful to prevent toddler-spider interactions.  I emphasized that the spiders are not aggressive, rarely bite, and not all that deadly for the most part.  But the newspaper chose not to publish it, for fear of scaring the residents. 

Today I see the press doing the same thing on a much larger scale, with the coronavirus.  But that's not right.  We need to face the reality of the situation so we can mount an effective response for our families and communities.  We need to face the shock and grief and uncertainty, and then get over it, and get to work.      

Over the past few weeks, I've been trying to prepare my family, while also doing my best to lead programs in the field and administer. I'm sorry for not alerting you sooner, but here at least, is a rough attempt.

Just to preface - I do have a B.S. in Biology from Georgetown and an M.S. in Environmental Science from UNLV, but I am by no means any kind of expert or authority in health science.  But I think it's fair to consider me an informed observer, and one that is not constrained by the kinds of political considerations that authority figures must contend with.  This is not intended to be authoritative, but to raise your awareness and encourage you to research, and to draw your own independent judgment.

The situation:

For the time being, much of the public is still either blissfully ignorant, or is just getting nervous, about the rapid approach of the outbreak, and there is probably still at least a small window of opportunity to get food and protective equipment, etc. for your family. 

I assess the situation is considerably worse than readily apparent from mainstream coverage or the official Chinese numbers, and that it could be a matter of hours or days before panic buying hits a neighborhood near you (like we've seen in Italy over the last few days).  CDC just reported a new case with no known origin... I expect a lot more of that whenever they actually start testing people in earnest, with kits that work.

It is arguably true that the US authorities had an opportunity to slow, or temporarily contain, the spread of the virus.  However, for reasons that are unclear, it does not appear that they have made a meaningful effort to do so.  Instead, our authorities appear to be following the Chinese government's playbook, including acceptance of that country's absurdly low numbers that are not congruent with the draconian measures being adopted there or with civilian leaks on social and alternative media - which support a very different story.

What I gather from scientific papers (mostly preprints), is that about 30% of infected people are contagious but asymptomatic, about 56% get mild symptoms, 10.5% get severe, and 3.5% get critical symptoms, with about 2.1% of people dying (i.e. 60% of critical patients).  As I understand it, all these numbers are for patients that receive advanced hospital care.

However, most hospitals have limited capacity, and maybe have room/gear/staff to deal with only a small fraction of the people that have severe/critical symptoms.  In the absence of intensive hospital care, mortality is presumably much higher than 2% - possibly as high as 10%+, with much higher ranges among people middle-aged and older.  Thankfully, younger people seem much less vulnerable to the disease, with minimal cases reported for children, and good survivorship among young adults. But conversely, the mortality among older people is quite high and alarming.  

This interpretation seems more consistent with the draconian measures taken in China, and with the alarming leaks by Chinese citizens. In other words, it appears that all of these people that never see a hospital or a test kit are simply not included in the Chinese numbers that our media echoes, largely uncritically.  There are many reports and anecdotes to this effect, e.g.:

"At least 19 people, mostly seniors, died in a senior center in Wuhan. As of last Thursday, 11 seniors died from respiratory failure after recurrent fevers, a nurse at Wuhan Social Welfare Institute told Caixin Global, a Chinese business newswire. She said the facility didn’t have Covid-19 testing capability and many medical workers have had fever symptoms. Other symptoms include a dry cough and gasping for breath. If not tested, then the person is not counted by Chinese public health leaders as being a coronavirus patient. (Forbes article)"

Over the coming days and weeks, I expect the data from South Korea and other more transparent countries to give us a significantly better understanding of this virus, but overwhelm of medical facilities due to a large number of severe cases seems to be the major concern at this point.

Meanwhile, here in the US, the CDC has set strict criteria for who can be tested: only those who have been to Wuhan themselves or been in close contact with those known to have been infected.  Since most of the spread is by asymptomatic individuals, we really have no idea how widespread it already is within the US.  All we know is that the CDC is not making a serious effort to learn or to tell us, what is really going on, and are leaving everybody in the dark.  They report testing only 400 people.  Meanwhile, there are some 8000 people on self-quarantine, who are not receiving tests.  People with suspicious symptoms, perhaps sick and dying, but not meeting those criteria, are likely not being tested either. 

This is not consistent with the official narrative that this virus will be contained in our country - it more closely resembles the catastrophic approach taken in China.  

Ultimately, we have very little idea (or data) on how widespread the virus is at this time in the US, but anecdotal evidence suggests states are not being very transparent about it, and the statistics are not in our favor.  Hundreds of thousands of Chinese people came here before the travel ban, and there are no screening tools that can reliably detect this virus in the asymptomatic. 

The problem is that the virus has been reported to double every 2.5 days, with infected people reportedly being very infectious for several days before symptoms appearing.  With that kind of exponential growth things start slow, but then very rapidly get big. In order to contain the spread of virus like that, it is critical to have excellent surveillance so that one can pounce on, and eliminate any outbreaks before they get too big. 

It seems to me, therefore, that our health authorities have already missed the boat on containment, and that we will soon see virus break out in multiple parts of the country with unstoppable and undeniable force, likely followed by a heavy-handed response by the government, especially in metropolises. 

Strategic incompetence?

Late last year there was an "Event201" pandemic simulation by various authorities (find on YouTube or here), who concluded that a pandemic cannot be contained over the long term, and only social and economic conditions can be managed.  So perhaps they have decided at a high level that it is preferable to have an acute pandemic that strikes hard and passes by faster, than to have a drawn-out restructuring of the entire economy in an ultimately futile attempt to avoid it. That is just my speculation… but we do need to understand that a pandemic offers no good options, only brutal trade-offs. 

Preparing:

I would suggest stocking up on food staples and necessities TODAY, because an outbreak in our area, or even just the widespread awareness of its possibility, could lead to very rapid and extreme measures (and a run on the stores) as was observed in parts of Italy and S. Korea for example this past week. We are rapidly approaching a turning point in public awareness that may lead to a run on food and supplies.

Make a trip to the store TODAY and get at least some high-calorie staples like: rice, beans, flour, oil, sugar. If possible get extra medications important to your family.

Research and practice behaviors and diet to keep your immune system strong - like getting sleep, some sunlight, vitamins etc. 

You should also start strategizing on how and when to begin social distancing. Can you work remotely and live off savings?  What about your church, local hospital, work-place, condo/HOA, etc - how can you minimize interactions and risk?


Above all, we need to think and talk openly about the situation, and be creative in coming up with solutions.  

You have the opportunity now to save lives in your family and community by facing this threat proactively.


For more recommendations on specific preps I would refer you here and here, along with the aforementioned YouTube channel of Ethan Galstad. You can also join the Peak Prosperity group and find tips and a forum there for $30/mo.  There may well also be better sources out there, but these folks seem to have some useful tips.  

Caveat and conclusion:

Let me end by saying that I readily imagine worst case-scenarios - it's part of my survivalist wiring - and that things usually play out much better than I expect.  Part of being a problem-solver is that I am sensitive to threats that can be purely hypothetical and never come to pass.  I hope that is true again in this case.  My analysis is based on incomplete information, and hopefully the more reassuring narrative of the authorities do prove to be correct and this outbreak proves merely a "really bad flu season."  If you work in the healthcare field or government and you have good information that you believe supports, or undermines my analysis, please feel free to share privately or in the comments on my blog or Fb. 

However, I also believe that planning for the worst, and being proactive in confronting a threat, makes better outcomes much more likely.  If each of us works hard to protect our families, and then start leading in our communities, we can make a major difference in how things play out.

Sincerely,

Nick 
----
Nick Grenier
Director
Natural Leaders
571-244-3793
naturalleaders.com
https://www.facebook.com/naturalleaders/
 
P.S. Having already written the above, I just discovered a scientific paper that just came out, which also considers a 10% case fatality rate, and much higher Chinese numbers to be very plausible and consistent with non-official data:  

He, Mai and Dunn, Lucia F., Evaluating Incidence and Impact Estimates of the Coronavirus Outbreak from Official and Non-Official Chinese Data Sources (February 18, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3540636 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3540636 
 
These are my sources on the number of asymptomatic infected people - about 30%:
 
Estimating the Asymptomatic Ratio of 2019 Novel Coronavirus onboard the Princess Cruises Ship, 2020. Kenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, Alexander Zarebski, Gerardo Chowell (here)
 
Clinical Characteristics of 24 Asymptomatic Infections with COVID-19 Screened among Close Contacts in Nanjing, China. 2020. Zhiliang Hu et al. (here)

I used the 30% figure from the studies above to correct the numbers provided in the study below for symptomatic patients (80/14/5 for mild/severe/critical respectively) by multiplying these numbers by 70%, the number of infected people that are symptomatic.

The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team. The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020[J]. China CDC Weekly, 2020, 2(8): 113-122. (here, See table 1)
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Student adventure report from early October 2019

10/8/2019

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Report by: Collin, age 7
Pictures by: Mira, age 12

Today Mr. Rhys was with us. It was the first time some of us met him and we were all glad to have him there. 

We started the day by talking about our plan.  We were going to go across the stream but men were doing construction so we could not. We had to change our plans.
 
At the start, we played a game called Fire in the Forest. This is a game where everyone pretends to be an animal. The person who is "it" says things like "If you have a tail, come across" then they try to tag you. If they get you, you pretend to be a tree and try to tag the others who come by.  If the person who is "it" yells "Fire in the Forest" all the people (animals) run. It was fun.

We also had a race to see who could build the best shelter. We broke off into two teams and it ended up a tie. While we were building the shelters, Misha found a strange white and orange grub! It was curled up and might have been hibernating.
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Soon after that we had lunch. Alden and others built a fire and we all sat around and ate. Misha and Reed both told stories during lunch. Reed told a spooky one! Reed also told us about Giardia and how to treat it (but I didn't really understand!)

After lunch some played games or played in the dirt. Nick found some wild grapes and most people liked them...especially the baby, Victor!

Then we hiked back and some played "Gaga Ball" where you try to hit someone else's feet. 

Then it was time to go home!
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The Natural Leaders origin story

10/5/2019

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Why I created Natural Leaders
​

I’ve loved nature from a very young age, and my favorite childhood memories are of exploring woods, creeks and wetlands.
Picture
The author as a boy, in his preferred habitat.
From middle school onward I devoured the Tom Brown Jr. books on wilderness survival and nature connection, and then started the Kamana Naturalist correspondence course offered by the Wilderness Awareness School, founded by Brown’s protegee, Jon Young.

As I grew deeper into nature connection, however, I became increasingly alienated from the modern world.  School felt very confining to me, and I was not excited about riding the conveyor belt of school → college → cubicle.

After attending the first youth program offered at Tom Brown Jr.’s Tracker School, at age 17, I started hanging out with one of the instructors I met there - Bill Kaczor, who would go on to start Ancestral Knowledge (AK). 


Fast forward a decade - when May Joy got out of the Air Force and we moved back to the DC area, I started leading programs for AK.  After 4.5 years I had learned a ton, and really grown as an instructor, but the economics of this nonprofit organization were not really set up to support the breadwinner of a growing family in the DC area for the long-term.


Not knowing exactly what to do next, May Joy and I decided to try something different, and I began transitioning into the unknown. This was terrifying, but we went for it…


For the summer, I arranged to lead Russian language camps for a Russian heritage program in Falls Church, and also offered a handful of summer camps of my own.  For the Fall, I had agreed to lead programs for Compass Homeschool Enrichment.


Not long after, I was contacted by 3 different parents interested in homeschool programs, which we soon started in Crownsville, Bowie and Lorton, respectively.


During that first year I operated under my own name, and also consumed many entrepreneurial books and podcasts.  And an old contact of mine from Georgetown Outdoor Education helped me with some business coaching that he was now offering.


As I went through that first year of leading programs on my own, or with May Joy, I thought about creating a program that could:


Bridge Nature and Civilization
 – As I mentioned above, in my youth my closeness to nature also distanced me from civilization, and I’ve observed over the years that many naturalists and survivalists also have this binary attitude, where nature is good, civilization is bad. 

I no longer find this attitude helpful or necessary.


Rather, I believe that learning to live in and with nature can and should help us become the kinds of people that can tap the wisdom and beauty of nature to improve the civilized world through leadership and creativity.


That is one reason I restructured the program to a student-led format, so students would develop proficiency at being responsible leaders – to gain life skills they can use to be productive citizens.


Develop a more effective pedagogy – 
After 4 years or so of teaching at AK, I had grown tremendously in my own skills as a storyteller, survivalist, photographer, navigator, etc.  But I had noticed much less growth in my students… I realized that the best way to learn was actually to teach. 

So, in our signature homeschool program, I decided to delegate all my teaching roles to the students, and to create a curriculum to support their execution of these roles, so they could learn by teaching. 


In my experience, students that embrace this approach grow much more rapidly and noticeably than in the former, teacher-led format. See this 
blog post, for example.

Provide a solution at the scale of the problem
 – While I don’t know that NL is right for everyone, I believe there is a vast unmet need for nature and adventure-based education across the country and beyond.

By developing a comprehensive online curriculum to support a student-led program, I am optimistic that we will be able to bring an ever improving program to serve more and more students and families over time. 


Expand and Improve Homeschooling
 – Each Natural Leaders program creates a nucleus of community for its participants.  As we expand, I hope for us gradually to add academic components so that families looking for secular homeschooling options see us as a 1-stop shop in that they feel confident they will receive the basics of great education, at an affordable price.

Cultivating the world
 – At the heart of Natural Leaders is a profound belief in each person as having a sacred ability and duty to serve the world in a powerful way unique to each individual.  I believe that the answer to humanity’s problems lies within each of us following our callings, drawing on our creativity and leadership ability.

The student-led format is born: 

With the above considerations in mind, I restructured the program to be student-led in Fall 2017.  I created roles and the online guidelines and started making videos to support students in leading skills. 

Later that season, Trevor Cox reached out to me and soon joined the team.  Early in 2018 we moved the website to NaturalLeaders.com.  


Today, in Fall 2019, we are working to upgrade our curriculum to a more interactive format with more progression built in. Stay tuned!


Join us!


If you find yourself inspired by any part of the vision I’ve laid out here, please let me know in the comments or in an email. 


Parent volunteering and leadership continues to play a vital role in our progress, and we are always on the lookout for new team members that resonate with our mission. 

Thank you!
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Use some summer caterpillar caution!

8/18/2019

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Summer is a great time to find cool caterpillars.  A few species in our area can sting or give you a rash though.
 
Read on to learn about the 3 species I've encountered, with links to more information.
 
1) Back to the saddleback again
​
At a summer camp some years back there was a boy who was prone to being obnoxiously loud, and rather careless.  Fortunately, Mother Nature is a wonderful teacher!
 
As students were doing fire challenges near a stream we found some stinging saddleback caterpillars on some of the spicebushes that surrounded us. 
 
When we moved on, I warned everyone to be alert while walking through the dense foliage, as there could be more in the area.
 
As we walked down a log, the muted calm of the forest was broken with an "Aaaaaaahhhhh!" -  like in the famous Home Alone aftershave scene.
 
That same boy had gotten stung in the face by a saddleback on a leaf he brushed against!
 
He recovered just fine, and believe it or not, I think it was a good experience for him.  He learned to be more cautious, and out of all the students there, he was the only one that returned the following year - for a week-long overnight program. He leveled up!
 
That's the only saddleback sting I've witnessed - a case of divine providence, arguably.  Saddleback is the species of stinging caterpillar I see most in the DC area - but rarely at that.
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This saddleback could probably fit on a nickel, and stings on contact. The stinging caterpillar I've seen most around DC.
2) The buck moth stops here!
 
One of our favorite destinations in the region is Smoke Hole Canyon, WV - a great place for family camping, tubing and rock-climbing.
 
But I made the mistake of leaning back against the wrong oak tree there as I checked out the cliffs one summer.  I felt something irritating on my back, like the sensation of scratchy wool in one spot. 
 
Eventually, I discovered the culprit.  Buck moth caterpillars are both camouflaged and very well armed with stinging spines.
 
When my daughter put her hand on one - scrambling up a steep slope in that same area, it was a very painful sting, but the pain soon faded and left no trace.
 
As for me - I still feel some itchiness on my back sometimes, even though a few years have passed.
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The buck moth caterpillar can be locally abundant - they were somewhat common on one hillside in WV in 2 different years - but I have never seen them anywhere else. They come in various inconspicuous earth tone shades.
3) Tussock, tussock, tussock!
 
Various species of tussock moth caterpillars are much more common than any stinging ones in our area.
 
Last summer my wife May Joy felt something crawling on her and brushed off what turned out to be one of these guys.
 
When she brushed it, numerous hairs broke off and scattered on the moist tender skin just below her neck, triggering some very itchy hives.
 
So if you feel something crawling on you - ask someone else to remove it carefully by having it crawl onto a stick or leaf.
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Very striking!  Just don't mess with these guys...those hairs break right off and can be highly irritating if they land on sensitive skin. Some other related species are less colorful.
Closing thoughts:
 
From my brief research, the world's only potentially deadly caterpillar is found in Brazil - it looks like the buck moth caterpillar, but with longer spines.
 
The most painful local stinger is said to be the puss moth caterpillar.  I don't know that I've found any yet, but they do live around here.
 
To learn about the puss moth, and other stinging caterpillars I've not described, check out this article.
 
Stinging caterpillars are generally rare in our region.  This email summarizes literally all of the irritating encounters I've had.
 
But if you find one, expect there could be more of that species nearby and be wary.
 
And in general, I would use caution, especially in mid to late summer, when moving through dense foliage. 
 
A sting to the neck could hypothetically cause a dangerous airway swelling emergency - although in my experience these stings do not swell as much as wasp stings.  Climbers should also be careful on trees and rocks to avoid stings that might cause a fall.
 
Find a cool caterpillar?  Have a good story? Share it on our Facebook page or in the comments below.
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From frozen in fear, to confidant leader – a student's success story!

8/3/2019

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​2 years ago, when I started a new homeschool program location and was first trying out our student-led format, there was one student in the group who was quite vocally anxious and negative about himself. 

I’ve seen many students in my career, and he was up there among the most anxious I’ve ever seen.  On our first day of fire challenges, he sat slumped by his twigs, berating his failure (it typically takes much trial and error before students start getting consistent success with fire-making).

To be honest, I was nervous about assigning him a role to lead in class – but as he started seeing the other students leading, he wanted to join in!

When he was Master of Games, it didn’t go that well – he had a hard time mobilizing his peers, and kept getting discouraged.  But he tried, and he got through the day. 

Then he was Storyteller.  According to his mother, he practiced his story all week and was super anxious about it. She even asked me if it might be possible to have students opt-in to leadership roles, and not have us assign them...

And when he got to class, for the longest time he just couldn’t bring himself to share the story, although the other boys in the group were very supportive and encouraging.  (I don’t remember anymore if he shared it that week, or the following week - but he did eventually share it!)

This was the day that Trevor first came to check out our program.  To be honest, I was kind of nervous – what would he think about this student-led format where the student storyteller can’t even share his story?

At the end of the day we gathered up for our debrief.  I explained that: courage is not fearlessness, but is acting in spite of one’s fear. That I was proud of the student for pushing into his fear, and that each of us are called to do so in our own lives.  If we are never terrified, it’s a sign of cowardice, not courage – of always playing it safe and not leaving our comfort zone.  

Trevor loved the program - and he soon replaced me as the group’s instructor.  As the months passed by, I would ask about this student, and would hear how he was doing better and better, how his confidence and attitude were improving. 

Then, in his second year of the program, I would hear about how he was taking younger students under his wing as a mentor in his own right!

This past spring when Trevor was doing film work in Italy, I subbed for him at our annual Spring Overnight and Field Day. 

I could hardly believe my eyes!

This very same student, now 11 years-old, coordinating and leading the event – confidently addressing and organizing our adult guests into groups without any direction, or Trevor even being there.

The transformation was remarkable, was this the same student?!

How did this happen?

There are 3 main factors that come to my mind:
  1. Uncomfortable challenges – If the student had only self-selected challenges, he may never have dared take on what he found intimidating.  It was overcoming the intimidation of leading his peers that was key to his gradually developing courage and fortitude. 
  2. A supportive community of staff and students – Trevor and I set the tone for a supportive group, and the students were able to develop a certain level of trust and support that helped everyone push personal limits and grow. 
  3. Time and patience – I know it was very difficult for the parents (and at times for us) to watch the student struggle with his anxiety.  It was tempting to just back off, and lessen the challenge, perhaps to pull him out. But if he had left the program at the peak of his struggle, it could have reinforced and strengthened his self-doubt!  I'm so glad he and his family had the faith to persevere and make it through that forest of fears.
I hope this story helps explain why we believe in a long-term mentoring journey, and that we will see your child in the field, growing with us, soon! 
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Long live the spirit of 1776!

7/2/2019

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243 years ago this month, 56 representatives at the Continental Congress pledged ‘their lives, their fortunes and their sacred honor’ to the cause of American Independence.

Unlike most of our legislators today, these men had some serious skin in the game – and for many, their pledges came due:

Five signers were captured by the British as traitors, and tortured before they died. Twelve had their homes ransacked and burned. Two lost their sons in the revolutionary army, another had two sons captured. Nine of the 56 fought and died from wounds or hardships of the revolutionary war.
... 

They signed the Declaration of Independence knowing full well that the penalty would be death if they were captured.
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These were not wild eyed, rabble-rousing ruffians. They were soft-spoken men of means and education. They had security, but they valued liberty more. 

(source)

But what made this Revolution and the Declaration remarkable was not so much the political independence from Britain, but rather that it yielded a remarkable degree of independence for individual Americans, and not merely a shift in who collected their taxes.    

After a tenuous victory, the framers cobbled together a Constitution and Bill of Rights that established a seedling of liberty that has expanded over the years to include people of all stripes.

Without losing time, Americans got to work and built a great civilization, generating boom after economic boom, while wave upon wave of immigrants arrived and joined in creating more abundance through fresh creativity, cooperation, and often grueling hard work.

Tragically, there were many dark and bloody episodes - many horrific failures to uphold the ideals of liberty and human dignity aspired to in the Declaration - both domestically and abroad.  And there were ecological casualties like the extinction of the Carolina parakeet and the passenger pigeon, and more such challenges with us today.

However, I would ask - were these stains failures of the ideals themselves, or failures to uphold them? 

And let us be humble and cautious in how we tackle the problems of our day, and how we improve upon the past.  Since 1776, there have been numerous other revolutions with much darker results: brutal bloodbaths, totalitarianism, mass starvation and ecological devastation.

Moreover, these devolutions were also brought about through daring, persistent leadership and activism of smart, idealistic activists, like many of us and our friends and family members.  

My own great grandmother, a brilliant PhD historian, was a fairly prominent Bolshevik co-founder of Soviet communism - before becoming a slave to the system she brought about and doing 5 years at labor camp in the far north.  That wasn’t the outcome she had anticipated -nor were the Holodomor, the Red Terror, or Chernobyl.

Happily, today things are astonishingly better, almost everywhere in the world, and certainly in Russia.

While Russian life is more hardscrabble than ours, and with plenty of room for improvement, there is certainly no previous era of Russian history that I would prefer to inhabit.

When I visited St. Petersburg a couple years ago there was literally dancing in the street, vibrant street life in general, cheap & delicious fresh-baked bread with no lines, and no container laws - so my wife and I could enjoy a beer while walking home late on a white night. 

In the Russian country-side, people are still free to build houses with no code requirements – so attractive small cabins are available at a fraction of American costs.  The transportation sector is also much more competitive, so it’s easy and cheap to get around with lots of options.  
 
It used to be that way here too, before certain industries learned to game the system with state-sponsored monopoly privileges.  For a recent example, witness Facebook calling for regulations (source) that their smaller would-be rivals won't be able to manage (source).

Still, some approximation of the principle “that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness” has, and continues to, spread far and wide.

And despite some unfortunate exceptions and a media focus to the contrary, overall people world-wide are living longer, healthier, freer and safer lives than ever before (source).  Those are the facts.

And so, today we find ourselves in the midst of another revolution, a technological one.  Before us is the dawn of a new age: of AI, automation, drones, virtual reality, global 5G coverage, cheap 3D printing, space colonies and more new developments than we can possibly imagine or anticipate.

These unprecedented advances in technology give humans incredible powers never known before.  More and bigger genies emerging from ever new lamps and bottles.

Will humanity be able to cooperate in harnessing these powers to make the world peaceful, prosperous and verdant? 

Or will these tools become a yoke to subjugate us and dominate nature?

Will we soar to greater freedom on these new wings like Daedalus, or careen to disaster like Icarus? 

Is this a new birth, or the end, of humanity?

History shows a long trend of improvement in virtually all areas valued by mankind, but also a tremendous human capacity for wreaking every kind of havoc imaginable.

The future is yet unwritten, it is up to us and our children to write it.

​So let us embrace the spirit of adventure, independence and courage that America's founders showed so long ago, and forge a future worthy of their sacrifices.
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Into the wild: 8 teens test themselves at NL's first survival expedition!

5/7/2019

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It's the night before departure on NL's first ever Wilderness Survival Immersion, a 3-night teen intro to survival - and one of our bravest parents emails me:

"Sorry to be Nervous Nellie here, but the hourly forecast for Harrisonburg says 35 degrees on Tuesday at 7AM."

Yup, no doubt, it would be one cold April night!  And for shelter the students would have just a wool blanket, a disposable mylar one, and whatever they could craft in the woods.

I was nervous too.  We'd be 3 hours away from home. And we'd never done anything quite like this before. 

Sure, Rhys and Trevor had led many adults on extended survival trips out in Utah, but never teens... And not even all adults are able to handle the survival training.

On my own first few cold-weather attempts at survival shelter I only made it halfway through the night before bailing out, and making my way home, shivering in the lonely darkness.

Over the years I've seen a few students get homesick on much milder adventure camps. How would these students handle the discomfort of survival?  The cold, the hunger, the thirst - after a lifetime of easy 1st-world living standards?

But arrayed against my fears were reasons for optimism:
  1. We had 2 highly experienced and outstanding instructors, plus the capable 16-yr old apprentice who had helped us develop this program to begin with.
  2. After the first cold night, the weather would be mild.
  3. Each of the students had trained at Natural Leaders and/or similar programs for multiple sessions, and in most cases, multiple years.  That had to count for something!

​To be honest, I was most worried about my 12-yr old daughter.  While I knew she was capable, and ostensibly well-trained after years in the field with me - she, like her dad, does not always handle hunger and exhaustion all that well on the home front.

And she was the youngest, and physically smallest, of the group.

But here they were on the edge of the wilderness - backpacks on, radios checked, and everyone raring to start up the mountain.  They took off, and after 4 hours of hiking, they reached the flat spot near a spring that we had identified on a topo map, and it proved excellent for a primitive camp.  Trevor radioed me a brief update.

Students spent the remaining few hours of light making leaf debris beds to sleep on, before turning in for the night on empty stomachs.   

Some of the more diligent and experienced students (and instructors) had piled leaves to form a thick mattress, and then added another thick layer above their wool blankets.  

Some were less thorough, and spent the night largely shivering, or huddled around a fire. Rhys even found some frost in the morning.

But they all made it through, and enjoyed a meager breakfast of unseasoned oatmeal and a special treat: a banana each!

My daughter vomited up her banana and oatmeal that morning - apparently a common reaction to a sudden decrease in food consumption.  But she soon bounced back.  

The group spent the day in recovery - napping and hydrating as needed - and basically sailed through the remainder of their adventure.

When they emerged victorious from the woods, 4 days later, I was thrilled to see and to feed them, and to celebrate their accomplishments.  Over the next few days my daughter told us about her adventures and gave us a virtual tour with the photos they had taken.

Trevor and Rhys assured me that my daughter and the other students had been stalwart and positive throughout the trip, that the group had proved quite hardy indeed.

I'd say that my daughter and I both gained a profound new respect and appreciation for what she is capable of. 

It's important to recognize that the power of the experience, of the victory and growth of each student, was largely proportional to the challenge that was endured.  It was precisely the cold, the hunger, the exhaustion, even the vomiting - and the ability to persevere and maintain composure and positivity despite them, that made the experience so powerful.

But how did they manage to endure all these hardships?  Without at all minimizing each student's significant personal fortitude, there are also 3 big factors I believe were key to the group's success.

1) Prior experience, good foundations.  The fact that the students had long experience with nature and survival skills already, meant they were comfortable with being in the woods, and were ready for a higher level of challenge.  They were excited to apply and test the skills they had learned over previous years. 

2) Great, confident mentors. In situations of uncertainty, kids look to adults to assess the situation by reading the grown-up's faces.  When I had encountered cold nights on my first teen solos, I was pushed past my comfort zone and lacked the confidence to continue on my own.  But these students had the benefit of great mentors to reassure them that all was normal and well - that the discomfort was just that, and would pass.

3) A strong group culture. All the students and instructors were in it together.  They were there for the challenge, and had a shared sense of adventure and commitment to showing up for each other in a positive way.

What's next?

More broadly, the instructors and I confirmed, yet again, that young people are more capable than we tend to think, and are hungry for challenges that help them to test and experience what they are made of.

In the wake of this pilot project, we feel like we've opened up a new world of possibility for our students and would like to raise the bar for our next expedition.

We would love to have more and longer expeditions, hopefully in areas that are more conducive to some basic hunting and gathering (these options were limited on the mountain we were on).  

Instructor Rhys Fontaine has a close friend with private land about 6 hours away that is loaded with biodiversity, and could prove perfect for a longer stay...

It is no small undertaking to organize a trek like this, though, so please let us know if you're interested, and we can keep you in the loop.  Your interest is our greatest encouragement.

We look forward to future adventures to come!
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Bowie field Report for 3/14/19

4/4/2019

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Field report by Rabiah:

It was an unusually warm day as the class started. Mr. Nick was there instead of Mr. Rhys, so it was slightly different. The day started with Dylan teaching us how to play starfish. After, we began collecting logs for our spatulas from the magical forest. Some were pink while others purple on the inside. This would make for beautiful spatulas!

Then, we headed into the forest, led by Hanan. We crossed the creek and headed to the mystical shelter. Then, we ate and were told a frightening story by Kanoe. After eating, little did everyone knows that our appetites would be ruined, Khadijah talked about a parasite, Cryptosporidium.

People can become infected with this parasite after drinking contaminated water or getting it in your mouth. This was especially important on a hot day. After learning about the parasite, we moved on to a more pleasant activity.  Everyone began working on their spatulas. They came out beautiful.
​

   A while later we planned some of the activities for field day. People were separated into groups and planned what they would say and what they would do. Then, we headed to the creek. Some of us waded in the water and continued building the rock bridge. The water was getting deeper in one part and spilling into the other. Much work had to be done! Unfortunately, it was time to head out, so we headed to the parking lot. Goodbyes were said as each of us drifted farther from the forest.


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Forest Aurora- A Haiku Journey

4/1/2019

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Written by a Natural Leaders Student

​Forest Aurora 
A miserable rain cries
beyond the children


Rocky embark on
A difficult day journey
Slippery leaves slide

Woeful timberland
Grey rains belting down, down, down
protecting our heads

A class of nature
The cloudy sky beats the drum 
Echoing near us

Slumberous forest
A story whispered through branches
Crackle of fire

Shivering, so cold
Stormy winds piercing our veil 
near the breaking point

Gasp, the rain won't stop 
Relief our carriage appears 
Wet, drip, cold farewell
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